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Thoroughbred Handicapping:
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Track Tracts

(Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from Steve Fierro's new book, The Four Quarters of Horse Investing, now available in the NetCapper Store.)

I am not necessarily concerned with the right way to go. I am concerned about the realistic way to go. I want to know, not mathematically, not hypothetically, but factually:

In my opinion, the above statement is what I need to monitor. My real concern is that I am making money based on real world factors as they apply to betting line I have created. I will chart my course for my business based on real numbers, not hypothesis. You should do the same.

Here is a sidebar: This story is presented because it has to do with defining your success. (The numbers I use here are for example purposes only. I really don�t want to hear from some engineer that these numbers don�t mesh. It is just an example.)

There are five individuals. They are standing around these few piles of materials. One pile is 100 tons of metal. The next pile is a few tons of plastic. There is also electrical wiring, wood and various liquids. One of the individuals asks another, "What do you plan to do with this material?"

The one fellow states, "I am going to get from America to England and back with it." The other four gentlemen can�t resist laughing and ridiculing this fellow. They then further inquire, "Exactly how do you plan to do this?" The fellow then states, "I will use this material to fly over the ocean to get there." These four other guys are now in the initial stages of having this fellow committed. Here is what they do next.

They escort this fellow into a room. Here is where they prove to this gentleman a simple fact based on their mathematics. They state that 100 tons of metal is hard enough to lift, let alone stay airborne. They also go on, emphatically, to prove that the other materials can�t contribute either.

Then it gets a bit more interesting. The fellow that made the statement about flying from America to England with this material now unveils a schematic. It displays his plans to rearrange this material to accomplish his goal. He unveils his blueprint for his airplane.

Now the other four really get to the point where they want to commit this guy to a mental hospital. He says, "What�s so funny?" The four naysayers are quick to point out, even with this blueprint, the chances of this working are slim and none. They also have the numbers to prove it.

This fellow then takes them over to an area where he makes the statement, "You are wrong. These materials are for the second plane I intend to build. Here is the first one. It is already done."

Although the other four gentlemen are awestruck, then still contend that even if this could get off the ground (the numbers say it can�t), it will never be able to get from America to England and back.

The smiling fellow then states in a very sarcastic English accent, "Oh, really chaps? I just returned yesterday. Have you not seen this morning�s newspaper?"

Here�s the headline:

Yes, even the newspapers refuse to call it an airplane. End of story.

The reason I invented the above story and sidebar is that in this very fickle game of horse race investing, it is not always the mathematical or hypothetical way that is best to monitor your success. Of course, you must use mathematics but sometimes you just have to go out and make the plane. Defining and documenting your success is critical. You will continually be challenged by those involved in the racetrack culture. Never succumb to anyone who just wants to let you know what you are doing will never work. NC

Copyright �2003 by Steve Fierro.  All rights reserved.

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