Thoroughbred Handicapping:
Learning, earning and loving the track.
| NetCapper Thoroughbred Handicapping: Learning, earning and loving the track. |
Handicapping Books: |
|
Home |
To The Cappers Tips On Using The Capper
Progress Report on
the New Spot Plays The 5YO Gelding V2 is showing an overall profit after 347 bets. A tweak that might work here is to restrict it to claiming races only. Bombs Away V2 is profitable, but it’s way too early to feel confident about it. Early Horse Early Race is showing a positive ROI with over 1000 bets. This one might improve with a tweak requiring that it only use male races. Early-running male horses do seem to do better than the fillies and mares. Early Power’s overall ROI is 1.15 after 189 bets. Lookin’ good so far. The EP Horse Style Bias spot play is break-even after 647 bets. A simple tweak of throwing out the route races might really improve this one. Fundamental Contender V2 is just starting out, but it’s in the black so far. Gus’s Key Horse V2 is a high-percentage winner in maiden claimer races. So far, it’s hitting 41% of the time with a 1.08 ROI. I may modify this one by throwing out ML Rank 6+ horses, which so far are a total loss. Highest NTL on the Rail V2 is doing great, with a 1.28 ROI. But it’s early days yet with only a 138 bet sample. Hollendorfer/No Baze V2 is surprising me by continuing to show a profit – Jerry Hollendorfer horses with early speed and Baze isn’t on – who knew? Michael’s Play V2 is doing great so far, with a better-than-favorites hit rate and a 1.43 ROI over a sample of 258 bets. If it continues, we can all pick out our islands. (But everything goes south at some time – that’s why we have spot play charts.) Mid Odds Trainer Play V2 is break-even after 186 bets. It might improve this one if we restrict it to weekends only (see page 2). MSW Frontrunner V2 is doing nicely, with a 30% hit rate and a 1.42 ROI. A maiden special weight who gets out early and has the best projected turn time seems to be a good play. Whew – there are more of these doing well than I realized. More later. Capper Talk Forums There's now a public Capper Talk forum in the Grandstand message board as well as the private Capper Talk Forum. If you're a user of The Capper and you don't have access to the private Capper Talk forum, go to The Grandstand and click on the Register Your Free Account link to register an account with ezBoard. When you're done with that process, email me your username. I'll add you to the list of people who can access the Capper Talk forum. Then, when you want to access it, just go to The Grandstand and login using that username. Talk to you later, Copyright ©2004 NetCapper Inc. All rights reserved. Tech Tips: Using The Capper •You can enlarge a certain area of the Spot Play Charts by dragging your mouse pointer over the area you want enlarged in an "L" pattern. Be sure to hold down your left mouse button while dragging the L pattern. To bring the chart back to full size, drag a backwards L pattern. •You can set the performance qualifiers in the Qualified Spot Plays tab of the Setup dialog to B for Best. For instance, if you set the Minimum LT Flat ROI to B, a qualifying spot play will only display if it is from the subcategory with the best long-term Return On Investment. If, for the Fundamental Contenders spot play, MSW is the subcategory with the highest LT ROI, then a Fundamental Contender spot play will only show up in the Performance Qualified Spot Play report for MSW races. •To keep The Capper running as fast as possible, keep your database lean and mean. The best way to do this is to delete your race data as soon as possible. After you've downloaded, imported and recalculated the binary charts for a particular day, you can delete the old race data from that day. Here's what I do: every day, before I download yesterday's binaries and today's race files, I go into the Delete Race Data tab of the Utilities dialog and use the calendar to delete all race data from the day before yesterday and before. Then I quit The Capper, start the Database Utility and hit the Compact/Repair button. That compacts the database and helps speed it up significantly. Then, when I download and Import, Recalculate and Print New Races, everything goes really fast. With a relatively new computer, each race file will generally import in about half a second. Also, note that I pretty much never delete model data (using the Delete Model Data tab) -- only race data. •If you have a reasonably fast computer, it's a good idea to download all 1 Month Surface Model files whenever you're downloading race files. That way, when you import and recalculate, the TSDs (Track/Surface/Distance adjustments) will be as current as possible. A good alternative is just to download the 1 Month Surface Model files for the tracks you're handicapping each day, and then, once a week or so, download all the tracks. This will ensure that shippers from tracks you don't normally handicapped will be judged properly by The Capper.
Copyright ©2004 NetCapper Inc. All rights reserved.
|