NetCapper
Thoroughbred Handicapping:
Learning, earning and loving the track.

To The Cappers
A Message to Users of The Capper - April 23, 2004

DSP: Diagnostic Spot Plays

Some of the spot plays aren�t really spot plays at all. They�re really diagnostic tools that let you explore in detail how a certain situation is doing at the racetrack.

One type of these "Diagnostic Spot Plays" is the Track spot plays.  You�ve probably heard of the term �track profiles.�  The most extensive and useable track profiles you�ll find are the �DSP: Track� spot plays The Capper contains for a few given tracks. (Right now, this includes BEL, BM, CRC, DEL, HAW, KEE, MED, MNR, PHA and SA.) You can see these reports (assuming you have these spot plays marked as Active in the Spot Plays tab of the Setup dialog) by going into the User-Generated Files dialog.

For instance, the Bay Meadows DSP breakdown is listed under: GR_SpotPlayBreakdown_DSP Track BM.PDF.  Here's what that breakdown currently looks like:

DSP: Track BM Breakdown Report

You can learn a lot about a track by looking at its breakdown. For instance, over the last 1765 races (seven months or so) that this breakdown contains data for, there are certain types of races where you could have made a profit by betting every single horse in every race of that type. The race-specific categories, which continue from the beginning of the breakdown through the �C Tracks� subcategory on page 3, contain the results you�d get if you bet every horse in every race of that category�s type. Looking at page 1, you can see that betting every router at BM over this period would have generated a 7% profit.

The horse-specific categories begin with the �Cramer RS: E� subcategory and continue through the �PR Rank: 6+� subcategory at the top of page 9. These categories apply to only certain horses depending on those horses� characteristics. Some of these are highly profitable at BM. One way you can break it down is to look at the running styles that were successful.  If you look at page 3, you can see that betting every EP horse at Bay Meadows during this period would have given you 19% wins with a healthy 1.48 ROI. The PS horses were also very profitable, putting out an 18% win rate with a 1.27 ROI..

There are other horse-specific categories that are interesting in this breakdown, but one that stands out to me is the �1C Rank: 6+� category. Apparently not having good early speed was a real plus at Bay Meadows, because these slow-early types generated a 12% bet win%, a 31% race win% (because multiple horses were bet in most races), and a 1.36 ROI. That would have been a nice stat to know if you were at Bay Meadows, wouldn�t it?

There are also some new jockey spot plays which break down every race that each jockey rides. This looks promising to me as a handicapping method, but I don�t have enough data yet to espouse that. Take a look at the Jockey: Baze, Tyler or the Jockey: Fragoso Pablo spot plays and you�ll see. This method of jockey handicapping looks like it might mesh well with chart handicapping and could be extended to trainers too.

FREE OFFER: If there�s a particular track, jockey or trainer you�d like to have tracked in a public diagnostic spot play, email me at gordon@netcapper.com or leave a message in The Grandstand. Tell me what track, jockey, or trainer you would like to have tracked and I�ll create a spot play for that purpose (one per user of The Capper).

Capper Talk Forums

There's now a public Capper Talk forum in the Grandstand message board as well as the private Capper Talk Forum.  If you're a user of The Capper and you don't have access to the private Capper Talk forum, go to The Grandstand and click on the Register Your Free Account link to register an account with ezBoard. When you're done with that process, email me your username. I'll add you to the list of people who can access the Capper Talk forum. Then, when you want to access it, just go to The Grandstand and login using that username.

Talk to you later,
Gordon Pine
NetCapper
gordon@netcapper.com

Copyright �2004 NetCapper Inc. All rights reserved.

Tech Tips: Using The Capper

�You can enlarge a certain area of the Spot Play Charts by dragging your mouse pointer over the area you want enlarged in an "L" pattern.  Be sure to hold down your left mouse button while dragging the L pattern.  To bring the chart back to full size, drag a backwards L pattern.

�You can set the performance qualifiers in the Qualified Spot Plays tab of the Setup dialog to B for Best.  For instance, if you set the Minimum LT Flat ROI to B, a qualifying spot play will only display if it is from the subcategory with the best long-term Return On Investment.  If, for the Fundamental Contenders spot play, MSW is the subcategory with the highest LT ROI, then a Fundamental Contender spot play will only show up in the Performance Qualified Spot Play report for MSW races.

�To keep The Capper running as fast as possible, keep your database lean and mean.  The best way to do this is to delete your race data as soon as possible.  After you've downloaded, imported and recalculated the binary charts for a particular day, you can delete the old race data from that day.  Here's what I do: every day, before I download yesterday's binaries and today's race files, I go into the Delete Race Data tab of the Utilities dialog and use the calendar to delete all race data from the day before yesterday and before.  Then I quit The Capper, start the Database Utility and hit the Compact/Repair button.  That compacts the database and helps speed it up significantly.  Then, when I download and Import, Recalculate and Print New Races, everything goes really fast.  With a relatively new computer, each race file will generally import in about half a second.  Also, note that I pretty much never delete model data (using the Delete Model Data tab) -- only race data.

�If you have a reasonably fast computer, it's a good idea to download all 1 Month Surface Model files whenever you're downloading race files.  That way, when you import and recalculate, the TSDs (Track/Surface/Distance adjustments) will be as current as possible.  A good alternative is just to download the 1 Month Surface Model files for the tracks you're handicapping each day, and then, once a week or so, download all the tracks.  This will ensure that shippers from tracks you don't normally handicapped will be judged properly by The Capper.

Copyright �2004 NetCapper Inc. All rights reserved.
Information in this document is subject to change without notice.  Other products and companies referred to herein are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies or mark holders.

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